After worldwide scholar enrollment crashed in fall 2025, a report from Shorelight, a global schooling agency, illuminates one issue that led to that decline: a bump in F-1 visa rejections, particularly for college kids from a handful of nations that usually provide massive numbers of worldwide enrollees.
Shorelight’s annual report on visa refusals confirmed that denials reached a decade excessive of 35 % worldwide in 2025, exceeding the earlier peak in 2020. These refusals had been primarily concentrated in Africa, the Center East and South Asia. Practically two-thirds (64 %) of all F-1 visa requests from Africans had been rejected, up from 43 % in 2015 and up 5 proportion factors from the earlier yr. Just a few nations, together with Sierra Leone and Somalia, reached rejection charges over 90 %. And India, beforehand the most important supplier of worldwide college students to the US, jumped from a refusal charge of 36 % in 2023 to 61 % in 2025.
In the meantime, visa refusal charges for South Individuals have really decreased up to now 4 years, from a peak of 31 % in 2022 to 22 % in 2025—although that charge continues to be greater than they had been a decade in the past. The coed visa denial charge amongst European candidates has remained regular over the previous 10 years, sitting at 9 % in 2026.
The report additionally notes that the refusals aren’t constant by area. In Latin America, for instance, visa rejection charges diversified vastly by nation; in Venezuela, for instance, rejections had been up 22 proportion factors from the earlier yr, however for college kids from Colombia, they’ve been on a gentle decline the previous three years.
Shorelight, which acquires scholar visa rejection knowledge from the U.S. Division of State through a public info request yearly, criticized these clusters of rejections, arguing that they present that every visa request shouldn’t be being judged by itself benefit.
“This present adjudication panorama undermines the precept of merit-based entry by creating localized refusal clusters. When a scholar’s chance of entry relies upon extra on their nation of origin than their tutorial credentials or funding, the integrity of the U.S. visa system is compromised,” the report stated. “The 2025 knowledge verify the consolidation of a ‘high-refusal tier’ that now encompasses the overwhelming majority of the International South.”
The analysis offers a brand new lens into the Trump administration’s campaign in opposition to worldwide college students, which kicked off a couple of yr in the past when the administration paused visa interviews to implement new social media evaluations for candidates. Since then, potential college students have struggled to search out visa interview appointments, significantly in a subset of nations, together with India. Authorities officers additionally terminated a swath of present college students’ statuses on SEVIS, the database that tracks worldwide college students within the U.S., although most of these had been later reversed.
The Trump administration has additionally sought coverage adjustments that may make it tougher for worldwide college students to check within the U.S., similar to a deliberate rule change that may cap at 4 years the period of time a scholar can keep within the U.S. with out getting an extension.
Extra broadly, the administration has spearheaded a large and extensively criticized deportation effort nationwide over the previous yr, boasting in January that it had deported over 675,000 undocumented immigrants.
added this/sg: “The Trump Administration is upholding the very best requirements of nationwide safety and public security by the visa course of, making clear that entry to the US is a privilege—not a proper—and that the protection of the American individuals comes first,” a State Division spokesperson advised Inside Larger Ed through e-mail. “All visa purposes are reviewed on a case-by-case foundation, in accordance with U.S. legislation, and adjudicated based mostly on the info and circumstances of the person case.”to right here/sg
Final month, the State Division launched knowledge displaying the impression of their actions: The variety of new scholar visas issued from summer time 2024 to summer time 2025 declined by 35.6 %.
Shorelight’s new knowledge reveals that these declines replicate not simply the shortcoming of scholars to safe visa appointments, but additionally the rising variety of visa refusals.
The report warns of the dire financial penalties of worldwide scholar declines, estimating—based mostly on the State Division visa numbers—a $3 billion loss in tuition income for universities this yr. The report additionally requires quite a few legislative and administrative reforms, similar to requiring “tailor-made coaching” for consulates in nations with refusal charges over 70 % and mandating that consular officers present clear explanations for all denials.
“Past quick monetary losses, these traits elevate longer-term considerations,” the report states. “Fewer worldwide college students imply lowered contributions to analysis, innovation, and campus variety, in addition to a shrinking pipeline of worldwide skilled expertise getting into the U.S. workforce. As competitor nations proceed to strengthen their methods to draw and retain worldwide college students, the U.S. dangers not solely short-term financial losses but additionally diminished competitiveness within the world expertise market.”
