However Jessica Millan Patterson, who’s chairing the No Marketing campaign and beforehand ran the state Republican Social gathering, stated the Democratic technique of attacking Trump is drained.
“They don’t have a playbook. They’ve one play and so they play that each single time,” she stated.
Patterson stated a big swath of the citizens stays undecided and a spread of voters — together with disaffected Democrats and independents — are open to the argument the No aspect is making.
“That is far much less partisan, regardless of what the Sure aspect is making an attempt to do,” she stated. “We speak about these strains which have been drawn by Democrats in a again room with little or no public participation and D.C. lobbyists and map drawers that nobody can identify, that’s when individuals are like that is fishy, that is shady, and I don’t need something to do with it.”
So whereas Democrats lean into Proposition 50 as a solution to Trump, Patterson stated Republicans — similar to within the 2021 recall marketing campaign — are banking on Newsom’s unpopularity with extra conservative voters. The message:
“Gavin Newsom is redrawing these districts as a partisan energy seize, not as a result of he’s making an attempt to repair an issue as a result of we didn’t have an issue to repair,” she stated.
That’s a wise transfer, stated GOP strategist Rob Stutzman, who is just not concerned in both marketing campaign.
“Newsom isn’t simply unpopular with Republicans, he truly triggers them,” stated Stutzman, president of Stutzman Public Affairs. “The Republican motivation on that is Newsom. As a lot as you’re getting Democrats to prove to vote towards Trump, the Republican turnout mechanism is Newsom.”
DeBoo didn’t disagree.
“Republicans are fairly dug in,” he stated “They might not be Trump individuals, however they’ve their emotions about Democratic management.”
Stutzman stated either side’ ways make sense. Democrats, who maintain a 20 level registration benefit over Republicans within the state, are merely making an attempt to prove their base and capitalize on Trump’s extremely adverse status right here. Republicans try to shore up their base and entice different voters who’re turned off by Newsom. The governor’s approval score in an August ballot was 51% — up from 46% within the spring and largely pushed by Democrats and unbiased voters excited by his aggressive posture towards Trump.
Simply 9% of GOP voters gave the governor excessive marks in that ballot — in comparison with 77% of Democrats.
“They’ve an enormous plurality of Democrat voters that they simply need to prove,” Stutzman stated. “It’s what we name a base election.”
Democrats might have additionally benefited politically from one thing that didn’t occur: Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who campaigned for the unbiased redistricting fee when it was created greater than a decade in the past, has come out towards Proposition 50 however not hit the marketing campaign path.
Stutzman stated Schwarzenegger’s lukewarm involvement — he has spoken out towards the measure on TV and at at the least one occasion, however not labored with the No on 50 marketing campaign — is sensible given he’s not a fan of the president.
“Schwarzenegger is a critic of Trump, so he’s not precisely gonna feed the Republican base or be the face that they essentially need to see, although they might agree with him on this,” stated Stutzman, who labored for Schwarzenegger when he was governor.
However the No aspect has been ready to make use of Schwarzenegger’s appearances of their promoting, which Stutzman stated may nonetheless be an efficient instrument in attracting some centrist or unbiased voters.
Early poll returns present equal shares of Democrats and Republicans have already solid their votes early — however with the Democrats’ numerical benefit, that quantities to just about twice as many votes for redistricting to date.
Those that haven’t voted but will certainly be listening to extra about Proposition 50 as Nov. 4 approaches. It’s already rating as one of the crucial costly poll fights in state historical past — with practically $150 million raised on either side — and there are nonetheless a number of weeks left till voting ends.
Whereas voters are deciding whether or not to approve new maps, it might really feel extra like they’re actually being requested to decide on between Newsom and Trump.
