The Public Coverage Institute of California survey suggests it’s probably that one Democrat and one Republican will advance to the state’s top-two November runoff.
Chad Bianco, Republican gubernatorial candidate for California, Xavier Becerra, Democratic gubernatorial candidate for California, and Steve Hilton, Republican gubernatorial candidate for California, arrive for a gubernatorial debate at KRON Studios in San Francisco on April 22, 2026. A brand new ballot by the PPIC signifies that Becerra and Hilton are main within the race for California’s subsequent governor. (Jason Henry/Nexstar/Bloomberg)
Becerra, former U.S. Well being and Human Companies secretary beneath President Joe Biden, leads the ballot with 23% help amongst probably voters, adopted by Hilton, a former Fox Information commentator and businessman, at 20%.
Steyer, a billionaire former hedge fund supervisor turned progressive activist, garnered 15% help, whereas Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter, a Democrat, rounded out the highest 5 at 13% and 12% respectively.
“That is the primary ballot that we’ve achieved that confirmed with some readability that we have now two candidates with greater than 20% of the vote — one a Democrat, one a Republican,” PPIC survey director Mark Baldassare mentioned. “There’s at all times the likelihood that we find yourself with two Democrats [in the November runoff], however it’s more likely at this level that we have now a Democrat and a Republican.”
Democrats have largely rallied round Becerra, who was caught within the single digits within the PPIC ballot as just lately as early April, after East Bay Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race amid allegations of sexual assault and harassment in opposition to him.
“Swalwell’s exit and the circumstances surrounding it led to help for Becerra — who has expertise in Sacramento, not like actually every other of the foremost candidates, and spoke to Democrats about one thing that basically mattered to them, which was that he had expertise taking over Donald Trump,” Baldassare mentioned.
Hilton likewise surged additional forward of Bianco amongst Republican voters after President Donald Trump endorsed him in early April. That’s regardless of the most recent PPIC ballot additionally discovering a pointy drop within the variety of Republicans saying the U.S. goes in the suitable course — right down to 50%, from 64% in PPIC’s February survey.
Regardless of that shift, Baldassare mentioned, Trump looms giant amongst Republicans, incomes a 75% approval ranking from GOP voters in California.
“Endorsements by President Trump, we’ve seen many times, in primaries makes a giant distinction,” he mentioned.
The ballot signifies that Steyer, who has far surpassed California’s self-funding file by spending greater than $213 million of his personal fortune on his candidacy, appears to have hit a ceiling within the mid-teens, Baldassare mentioned. He didn’t depend Steyer utterly out, although — and Steyer’s vital conflict chest means he’ll don’t have any drawback funding wall-to-wall adverts within the marketing campaign’s remaining days.
“We haven’t seen a lot change in help for Tom Steyer since he entered the race,” Baldassare mentioned. “However Tom Steyer continues to be a contender, and we’ll watch and see what occurs.”
The ballot additionally discovered that the value of residing and affordability stay Californians’ prime considerations throughout the state, and almost one-third of respondents see political extremism or threats to democracy as a very powerful issues dealing with the U.S. An extra quarter of Californians informed PPIC the economic system was their prime concern nationally.
The ballot has a sampling error of plus or minus 3.2%. It was performed Might 14-18.
